In certain US areas, the American Gaming Association (AGA) has run advertisements against the growth of prediction markets that provide sports contracts.
In an effort to oppose sports event contracts on prediction market platforms, the AGA, a lobbying organization that represents the interests of the commercial and tribal gambling industries in Washington, DC, and state capitals around the country, recently purchased advertising time on social media and YouTube. Sportsbook titans DraftKings and FanDuel joined Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com in creating online exchanges that enable the purchase and sale of shares tied to a variety of events, including sports, as a result of the prediction markets' explosive growth in the US.
Casino.org has observed YouTube advertisements from the American Gambling Association (AGA) that support the group's view that sports contracts on prediction markets are just sports betting.
"No matter the name, it’s still sports betting,” the AGA website against sports event contracts reads.
“Prediction market platforms openly flout sports betting’s state and tribal oversight in offering sports event contracts. These platforms disregard vital consumer protections, generate no benefits for local communities, and threaten the integrity of games,” the AGA adds.
You can view the complete AGA spot here.
For a number of reasons, the American Gaming Association is against sports event contracts in prediction markets.
The association argues that the integrity of sports is threatened because prediction markets are not in line with integrity monitors that identify and report suspicious betting activity. The AGA also objects to the fact that neither state gaming taxes nor the federal excise tax that legitimate sportsbooks are required to pay on each wager they accept apply to prediction markets.
“These operators try to pretend they’re not enabling sports wagering, seeking to bypass the industry’s effective regulatory framework, but they’re not fooling anyone,” the AGA said.
Prediction markets assert that they are operating derivative contracts in accordance with Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulations. The federal government organization that regulates the derivatives markets, which include futures, swaps, and specific types of options, has granted these prediction markets Designated Contract Market (DCM) licenses.
In the past, DCM licensees have been exchanges that facilitate the purchase and sale of commodity futures and options. By selling contracts on everything from Taylor Swift's wedding location to the results of the 2024 US presidential election, Kalshi and Polymarket changed the DCM landscape.
According to the AGA, state governments are suffering greatly as a result of prediction markets. According to the gambling industry, governments have lost out on about $200 million in tax revenue since prediction markets started providing contracts including sports.
“Legal gaming generates $53 billion annually in state and local tax revenue to fund hospitals, libraries, schools, and first responders in communities that welcome it. Because prediction markets bypass state and tribal authorities entirely, they operate without local approval or oversight and contribute nothing to residents. Every dollar prediction markets siphon from the legal, regulated sports betting market drains money from a framework that supports local communities,” the AGA said.
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